Why Arsenal can still win the Premier League

With nine games to go, and an 11 point gap with Leicester (despite a game in hand), it’s a fair assumption that Arsenal’s title race is over for another season. But this post isn’t for the doom and gloom fans, this is for the optimists, the opportunists, the ones who took positives from Barcelona away. This is a head-in-the-clouds, why we can still win the league, destiny’s in our own hands post that may just rekindle your small flame of hope.

Now we have some tough games still to go. Goodison Park, Upton Park and the Etihad aren’t easy places for us to secure points. Add to that matches against Tony Pulis’ West Brom, relegation battlers Norwich, and nine wins from our last nine looks unlikely. But do we really need that? We’re eight points behind Leicester (excluding the game in hand), and we’re three points behind Tottenham.

Second Place

Well first off we should still be aiming to break in to the top two. This seems like very little consolation for Arsenal fans, but it has been over a decade since we last finished in the top two. This season was a great opportunity to win the title, but it is still a fantastic chance to secure our highest finish since leaving Highbury and break us out of this 3rd/4th mentality. Next season can start with a strong footing and a (small) sense of progress.

There’s also the matter of finishing above Tottenham. Say Leicester do win the league, we’re only three points behind Tottenham. The run of finishing above them stretches back 19 years and is still well within our reach. Imagine if after everything that has happened this season, Tottenham’s best ever Premier League season, when they had the league title within their grasps, when we imploded, we still finish above them. It would prove a level of dominance over our local rivals like none other in the League.

Champions

Secondly let’s look at winning the title. We can catch Spurs, no doubt about that. Their Thursday night exit in the Europa League means all three competing teams have no distractions. But the thumping defeat by Dortmund can also serve as a blow to the side, and although it’s unlikely it will cause any major damage a slight wobble in results is all we need. A couple of dropped points would suffice. Fans might point to Arsenal’s own thumping by Barcelona, but we’re used to that now. Knocked out at the same stage five years in row, you get used to picking yourselves up and finishing your season!

So that brings us to Leicester. Leicester City, the unknown underdogs making a valiant gallop for the title. Have no doubt that if Arsenal were not (kind of) involved still, I’d be supporting Leicester for the title. It’s a great story and inspiring for all other teams. But we have an 11-year curse to break, and now is not the time for rose-tinted spectacles. Of Leicester’s last four games, they’ve won three by 1-0. I understand the importance of small wins to secure a title, but as games get finer the pressure of a title challenge could get to a squad of players who haven’t previously been involved in one. An eight point margin is not huge, a few draws and that table is looking very different. The Foxes have a tough three games to end the season – Man Utd, Everton and Chelsea. Now how seriously their opponents take the matches remain to be seen, but if Arsenal can stay within touching distance this chase can go right down to May.

Recent Form

If we take a look at recent form then the teams aren’t as far apart as some may think. Stripping out the FA Cup, Champions League and Europa League ties and the average WhoScored.com rating for each team’s last six Premier League matches is fairly similar. Leicester lead with an average rating of 7.04, then Arsenal with 6.99 and Tottenham with 6.98. Admittedly our rating is kept up by the first three games of our recent form, but it also shows we’ve only had three poor league performances recently. In fact only two bad results, considering a draw at White Hart Lane’s respectable this season.

Despite the recent form, we still have the best team rating of any in the Premier League this season. Given how poor we’ve been since the New Year it shows the level of dominance and performances we had in the first half of the season. Victories against Leicester, Man City and Man Utd come to mind, and it’s at that level we need to reach if we’re going to keep our faint title hopes alive.

Scoring nine goals in our last six games would indicate the problems have been defensive, but this isn’t entirely true. Although questions can be raised over our defence, particularly v Man Utd and Swansea, our strikers are missing a host of chances as our finishing woes continue. But Giroud, Alexis and co aren’t the only ones struggling with some form. Vardy and Mahrez each have one goal and two assists in their last six games. Respectable yes, but not the sort of form Leicester have relied upon to get them to the summit. If neither player reaches their early season form Leicester may struggle for goals when they need them the most.

This weekend will be pivotal in how things shape up, with all three sides only having the Premier League left to play for. The Gunners head to Everton, not even as favourites, but if we can secure the three points then our confidence and belief will flood back. Coupled with Leicester facing a strong and confident Crystal Palace away, if they fail to win this race could be blown wide open again. If we can go into the international break having closed the gap then the sprint finish can commence in April. No one will like it if we nick the title off Leicester in May, but we’ll be too busy celebrating to care. The comeback begins now.

RK